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美联储早于预期发出加息和减债信号

2021-06-22 17:06:31

The world’s largest central bank, the US Federal Reserve, as expected, was the first to signal the beginning of the end of the ultra-loose monetary policy introduced at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic and the gradual reduction of its massive bond-buying program.

正如预期的那样,全球最大的中央银行美国联邦储备委员会率先发出信号,开始结束在冠状病毒大流行初期实施的超宽松货币政策,并逐步减少其大规模的债券购买计划.

The US Federal Reserve began opening its doors to monetary policy changes in projections of the accelerated timetable for interest rate increases. This signalled the beginning of the end of the pandemic-driven policy which included talks on how to end a massive bond-buying program introduced at the beginning of the crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic.

美联储(fed)对加快加息时间表的预测,开始向货币政策变化敞开大门。这标志着大流行驱动的政策开始结束,其中包括关于如何结束新冠肺炎大流行危机开始时推出的大规模债券购买计划的讨论。

The multi-month emergency that constrained the US economy has faded into an improving health situation that resulted in a surging inflation and a strong economic growth. These outcomes, of course, are contributing to the central bank’s decision.

制约美国经济的持续数月的紧急状况,已逐渐改善演变为健康状况的,与此同时导致通胀飙升和经济强劲增长。当然,这些结果促成了央行的决定。

The Fed announced that changes in the policy may happen earlier than expected and moved its projections for rate hikes from 2024 to 2023, with the majority of FOMC policymakers supporting the scenario, while some see the rates moving even higher next year.

美联储宣布政策变化可能比预期更早发生,并将加息预测从 2024 年提至 2023 年,大多数 FOMC 决策者支持这种情况,而一些人认为明年利率会更高。

The US central bank’s head Jerome Powell, in the press conference, stated that, in addition to a decision for initiating the rate increase process, the policymakers also discussed about when to start tapering the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly bond purchases, as the economy continues to heal and expressed confidence that the US economic recovery is on track. A confirmation of the Fed’s decisions was the omission of their common phrases regarding the health crisis weighing on the economy.

美国央行行长杰罗姆?鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示,除了决定启动加息程序,政策制定者还讨论了何时开始缩减美联储每月1200亿美元的债券购买,他对美国经济正在复苏充满信心。对美联储决定的确认是,他们省略了有关于健康危机拖累经济的常用语。

The Fed expects the US economy to grow 7% this year yet, based on its projections on faster than expected economic recovery, the decision to keep the policy unchanged in its June’s meeting signals that a change in their rhetoric does not mean a policy change is imminent.

美联储预计今年美国经济将增长 7%,但基于其对经济复苏速度快于预期的预测,在其 6 月会议上保持政策不变的决定表明,他们措辞的改变并不意味着政策改变是迫在眉睫。

The central bank announced earlier that the talks about tapering and first-rate hikes will come to the agenda once two key requirements -steady inflation slightly above Fed’s 2% target and return to full employment- will be fulfilled.

美联储早些时候宣布,一旦两个关键要求——稳定的略高于美联储2%目标的通货膨胀率和恢复充分就业——得以实现,有关紧缩和一流的加息的讨论将被提上议程。

The recent data showed a stronger than expected rise in consumer prices, which the central bank sees as temporary, but policymakers remain cautious as persisting higher inflation could lead towards earlier rate hikes.

近期数据显示,消费者价格指数(cpi)涨幅强于预期,央行认为这只是暂时现象,但政策制定者仍持谨慎态度,因为通胀持续走高可能导致提前加息。

On the other hand, the labor market is kept at the back foot as the economy is still short for about 7.5 million jobs compared to the period just before the start of the pandemic. That is far from what the Fed’s goal is and may even delay the planned changes in the monetary policy.

另一方面,由于与疫情爆发前相比,经济仍缺少约750万个就业岗位,劳动力市场处于落后地位。这与美联储的目标相去甚远,甚至可能推迟货币政策的计划调整。

The other major central banks are expected to remain on hold for now as they were waiting for the Fed to make the first step, although the economic conditions in their countries -despite the similarity on impact from the pandemic- were different.

预计其他主要央行目前仍将按期加息,等待美联储迈出第一步,尽管它们各自国家的经济状况(在疫情影响方面都有相似之处)有所不同。

The European Central Bank (ECB)

欧洲中央银行 (ECB)

The ECB agreed to keep an ultra-low borrowing cost and to maintain its bond purchases at an elevated pace, as policymakers did not discuss tapering the stimulus at the central bank’s latest policy meeting, despite the fact that economic growth recovers faster than expected.

欧洲央行同意维持极低的借贷成本,并维持较高的购债步伐。尽管经济复苏速度快于预期,但决策者在央行最新的政策会议上并未讨论缩减刺激计划

The European Central Bank’s President Christine Lagarde said that it is too early to debate these issues, although the eurozone economy is at a turning point.

欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜?拉加德表示,尽管欧元区经济正处于转折点,但现在讨论这些问题还为时过早。

Lagarde added that economic recovery must be firm and sustainable before the ECB can start talking about reducing its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), worth 1.85 trillion euros.

拉加德补充说,在欧洲央行开始讨论减少其价值 1.85 万亿欧元的大流行紧急购买计划 (PEPP) 之前,经济复苏必须是坚定和可持续的。

The ECB is expected to start discussing the end of the program at their September policy meeting, but policymakers fear that they may not have the data they need to decide the future of its emergency bond-buying program by then.

预计欧洲央行将在 9 月的政策会议上开始讨论该计划的应何时结束,但政策制定者担心到那时他们可能没有决定未来紧急债券购买计划所需的数据。

Economists do not expect the central bank to extend or enlarge the program again, but to more likely shift policy support to older Asset Purchase Program that would support the recovery until the economy returns to the pre-pandemic level. 

经济学家预计,美联储不会再次延长或扩大该计划,但更有可能将政策支持转向旧的资产购买计划,该计划将支撑经济复苏,直到经济恢复到新冠大流行前的水平。

Bank of England (BoE)


The Bank of England policymakers will meet next week with big expectations to leave policy unchanged. Yet, investors expect an indication on how and when it plans to start changes in the monetary policy.

英国央行(boe)决策者将于下周召开会议,外界对其维持政策不变抱有很大期望。不过,投资者预计会议将会预示货币政策何时以何种方式进行调整。

British inflation unexpectedly jumped in May and hit the levels above BoE’s 2% target, driven by post-lockdown acceleration in economic activities that lifted prices.

由于封锁后的经济活动加速推高价格,英国5月通胀率跃升,超过英国央行2%的目标水平。 


Higher inflation and solid economic figures add to speculations that the BoE could follow the Fed lead and be one of the first central banks to start tightening the policy, as currency markets are fully pricing in a 0.25% rate hike by the end of 2022.

市场猜测攀升的通胀率和坚挺的经济数据会导致英国央行追随美联储,成为首批实施货币收缩政策的央行之一,同时外汇市场也充分反映出英国央行将在2022年底前加息0.25%。 


The situation of the increased number of new cases of the Delta variant of coronavirus is closely watched as it may further extend current restrictive measures that have been extended for one month, something that hurts the economic recovery and may delay the central bank’s plans.

新型冠状病毒德尔塔变种新增病例的情况受到密切关注, 病毒的蔓延有可能会延长已经延长一个月的限制性措施, 这将损害经济复苏, 并可能延迟央行的计划。 


澳大利亚储备银行(RBA)

Australia’s central bank is likely going to extend its bond purchase program in its next policy meeting in July, with the aim of meeting its goals of boosting the still fragile inflation and employment.

澳大利亚央行可能会在 7 月的下一次政策会议上延长其债券购买计划,以实现其提振仍然脆弱的通胀和就业的目标。

Although the policymakers first discussed tapering or even ceasing it massive quantitative easing program when it expires in September, the RBA is very likely going to keep the ultra-low interest rate and extend the A$100billion bond purchases for six months, as this is one of the key factors underpinning accommodative policy necessary for the economic recovery.

尽管决策者首次讨论了在9月份到期时缩减甚至停止大规模的量化宽松计划,但澳大利亚央行很可能会保持超低利率,并将1,000亿澳元的债券购买计划延长6个月。因为这是支撑经济复苏所必需的宽松政策的关键因素之一。

The policymakers explained the need for easy monetary policy until wage growth rises sustainably above 3% to help to reach 2%-3% inflation target, as inflation is currently at record low of 1.2% and wage growth at 1.5%, which is well below 2% in Europe and 3% in the United States.

决策者解释道,在工资增长持续超过3%之前,有必要实施宽松的货币政策,以帮助实现2%-3%的通胀目标。因为目前通胀率为1.2%,工资增长为1.5%,远低于欧洲的2%和美国的3%。

The central bank expects wage pressures to remain subdued until 2024, despite strong growth in employment which is expected to continue in coming months.

央行预计尽管未来几个月就业将持续强劲增长,但到2024年之前,工资压力仍将保持在较低水平。